— Early Warning System —

The Hissing Fuse

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A dashboard to give you an early warning

Last updated: May 14, 2026 04:24 PM ET  ·  Next refresh in 05:00

S&P 500
7,502.04+47.64 (+0.64%)
Open 7,454.401h ago 7,506.83
NASDAQ
26,634.10+198.62 (+0.75%)
Open 26,435.481h ago 26,664.45
DOW
50,069.22+225.64 (+0.45%)
Open 49,843.581h ago 50,080.44
Combustion Index
29%
Smoldering
0 Low255075100 High
Fear & Greed
20
VIX
25
Shiller PE
85
Yield Curve
10
S&P / 200MA
20
Credit Spreads
15
Cu/Gold Ratio
10
Jobless Claims
10
Monetary Policy
20
Oil (WTI)
75
Gold
30
Sentiment
Fear & Greed Index
66
Greed
30-day history
0–24 Extreme Fear  ·  25–44 Fear  ·  45–55 Neutral  ·  56–75 Greed  ·  76–100 Extreme Greed
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
17.30
Moderate
30-day history
<15 Low vol (complacency)  ·  15–20 Moderate  ·  20–30 Elevated  ·  >30 Extreme fear / crisis
Market
S&P 500 vs 200-Day MA
+10.7%
Extended
Price: 7501  ·  200MA: 6775
−20%0+20%
30-day price history  ·  dashed = 200-day MA
Credit Spreads (HYG / LQD Ratio)
0.7356
Stable
-0.3% from 90-day high
30-day history  ·  ↓ falling = widening spreads
A falling HYG/LQD ratio means high-yield bonds underperform investment-grade — a sign of rising credit stress and risk-off positioning.
Shiller CAPE P/E Ratio
42.32
Historically High
12-month history
Historical avg ≈ 17. Dot-com peak: 44.2. 2009 trough: 13.3. Measures inflation-adjusted 10-yr avg earnings.
Macro
Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y Spread)
+0.72%
Normal
3-month history  ·  dashed line = zero (inversion threshold)
Positive = normal. Negative = inverted — has preceded every US recession since 1955, typically by 12–18 months.
Monetary Policy
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
+3.8%
CPI Inflation (YoY — April 2026)
Real Rate: -0.15%  Neutral
CPI inflation — 12-month history  ·  dashed = 2% target
Real rate = Fed Funds − CPI. Positive = restrictive (slows economy). Negative = accommodative (risks re-igniting inflation). Fed target: 2% inflation.
Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
179,815
Healthy
▼ -240 week-over-week
26-week trend
<190k Healthy  ·  190–220k Normal  ·  220–270k Rising  ·  >270k Elevated. Raw DOL state data (not seasonally adjusted).
Commodities
WTI Crude Oil
$102.04
Elevated
+63.7% over 30 days
30-day history
<$60 Very Low  ·  $60–80 Low  ·  $80–95 Moderate  ·  >$95 Elevated. Oil spikes precede ~70% of recessions. Also a key proxy for Middle East geopolitical tension.
Gold (Futures)
$4655
Rising
+6.4% from 90-day low  ·  -4.7% (30d)
30-day history
Gold surges signal flight to safety — investors fleeing equities, credit, or geopolitical risk. Near all-time highs often coincides with peak macro uncertainty.
Copper / Gold Ratio
1.4131
Rising
+22.5% over 30 days  ·  +0.0% from 90-day high
30-day history
Copper prices reflect industrial demand; gold reflects fear. A falling ratio means gold is outpacing copper — markets pricing in slowdown or stress. Popularised by Jeff Gundlach as a leading indicator for growth and Treasury yields.