The Hissing Fuse — Market Early Warning Dashboard

Combustion Index

27%

Smoldering

0 Low255075100 High

Fear & Greed

VIX

Shiller PE

Yield Curve

S&P / 200MA

Credit Spreads

Cu/Gold Ratio

Monetary Policy

Oil (WTI)

Gold

Sentiment

Fear & Greed Index

Greed

30-day history

0–24 Extreme Fear · 25–44 Fear · 45–55 Neutral · 56–75 Greed · 76–100 Extreme Greed

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

14.75

Low Volatility

30-day history

<15 Low vol (complacency) · 15–20 Moderate · 20–30 Elevated · >30 Extreme fear / crisis

Market

S&P 500 vs 200-Day MA

+10.4%

Extended

Price: 7805 · 200MA: 7070

−20%0+20%

30-day price history · dashed = 200-day MA

Credit Spreads (HYG / LQD Ratio)

0.7485

Stable

-0.2% from 90-day high

30-day history · ↓ falling = widening spreads

A falling HYG/LQD ratio means high-yield bonds underperform investment-grade — a sign of rising credit stress and risk-off positioning.

Shiller CAPE P/E Ratio

42.34

Historically High

12-month history

Historical avg ≈ 17. Dot-com peak: 44.2. 2009 trough: 13.3. Measures inflation-adjusted 10-yr avg earnings.

Macro

Yield Curve (10Y − 2Y Spread)

+0.72%

Normal

3-month history · dashed line = zero (inversion threshold)

Positive = normal. Negative = inverted — has preceded every US recession since 1955, typically by 12–18 months.

Monetary Policy

3.63%

Fed Funds Rate

+3.3%

CPI Inflation (YoY — July 2026)

Real Rate: +0.33% Neutral

CPI inflation — 12-month history · dashed = 2% target

Real rate = Fed Funds − CPI. Positive = restrictive (slows economy). Negative = accommodative (risks re-igniting inflation). Fed target: 2% inflation.

Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)

—

N/A

26-week trend

<190k Healthy · 190–220k Normal · 220–270k Rising · >270k Elevated. Raw DOL state data (not seasonally adjusted).

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil

$81.22

Moderate

-19.6% over 30 days

30-day history

<$60 Very Low · $60–80 Low · $80–95 Moderate · >$95 Elevated. Oil spikes precede ~70% of recessions. Also a key proxy for Middle East geopolitical tension.

Gold (Futures)

$4404

Rising

+10.5% from 90-day low · -6.2% (30d)

30-day history

Gold surges signal flight to safety — investors fleeing equities, credit, or geopolitical risk. Near all-time highs often coincides with peak macro uncertainty.

Copper / Gold Ratio

1.4948

Rising

+5.8% over 30 days · -7.5% from 90-day high

30-day history

Copper prices reflect industrial demand; gold reflects fear. A falling ratio means gold is outpacing copper — markets pricing in slowdown or stress. Popularised by Jeff Gundlach as a leading indicator for growth and Treasury yields.